âIf you need to be right before you move, you will never win. Perfection is the enemy of the good when it comes to emergency management (& Entrepreneurship – WG). Speed trumps perfection. And the problem we have in society is that everyone is afraid of making a mistake.â
Quote by Dr Mike Ryan who leads World Health Organization Health Emergency Programme (Covid-19 efforts).
Poker and the Psychology of Uncertainty by Maria Konnikova has a great perspective and overlap into business.
Iâve been thinking about the risk of uncertainty in business and this article articulates the need to have incentives that are invested to drive decisions that build skills.
Life as in poker you are dealt a hand of cards and itâs how you play them that matters at different stages of your life or game.
âBetting on uncertainty is one of the best ways of understanding it. And it is one of the best ways of conquering the pitfalls of our decision processes in just about any endeavor.â
âIn poker, you can win with the worst hand and you can lose with the best hand. In every other game in a casino and in games of perfect information like chess and Go you simply must have the best of it to win. No other way is possible. And that, in a nutshell, is why poker is a skilled endeavor rather than a gambling one.â
Dr. Kai-Fu Leeâs book on AI superpowers is fascinating (published in Sept 2018) especially at this time.
He outlines Chinaâs leadership and growth in the different areas ofai in summary.
AlphaGo beating Go World Champion Lee Se-dol in 2016 was the âSputnikâ moment that the Chinese government (280m Chinese people watching the event live) had to declare the goal to be the world leader in AI in 10 years.Â
Due to local competition Chinaâs tech sector has a âheavy touchâ approach in launching products to entrench in the market.DiDi (Chinaâs Uber) owns all the fuel and maintenance stations. This provides more data for AI as opposed to a USâs âlight touchâ approach I.e. Uber.Â
China (like Africa) is a mobile first country with more data for deep learning to operate on.Â
Dr Kai-Fu Lee Predictions (By Sept 2021):
Internet AI: China will lead the   US 60:40
Business AI: China will follow the US 30:70Â
Perception AI: China will lead the US 80:20
Autonomous AI: China will match US 50:50
Overall the total AI market is forecasted to be valued at $15.7 Trillion (China will capture $7T and the US $3.7T)
The 8 main premises are (my full summary in comments below):
1. Human Ambition: Has changed from surviving famine and war to living longer and happier.
2. Collective Co-operation: This ability to believe stories or narratives has allowed Homo Sapiens to dominate over other hominids and animals possible.
3. Shared Narratives: Through shared narrative, religion and beliefs allow for moral laws to be upheld.
4. Modernity shaping lives but at what cost to the environment and meaning?
5. Liberal societies are increasing. Liberalism is the dominant form of Humanism.
6. Modern science challenges Liberalism. Biologically humans can be manipulated by external inputs and inherent biases.
7. Algorithms & Technology ruling Humanâs lives. Human neuroscience has been hacked by algorithms for our data and has resulted in the rise of dopamine addiction.
8. Fighting Algorithms. âTechno humanismâ is when humans merge with tech = Homo Deus.
âDataismâ allows for the algorithms to improve on their own without human intervention.
What happens when the algorithm builds better algorithms than humans?Â
Key Question: What happens when algorithms start creating better algorithms than humans?